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Trade Trudging? INCONCEIVABLE!

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Like Plato, Aristotle, and Socrates, Trade-Trudging is how I can maintain a dizzying intellect while avoiding the classic blunders. Never go in against a Sicilian when Vertical Spreads are on the line!

Vizzini: “He didn’t fall? INCONCEIVABLE!”
Inigo Montoya: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

(Movie: The Princess Bride)

Trade Trudging Week

Vizzini
(Movie: The Princess Bride)

A Trade Journal would be inconceivable if I don’t stay dutiful in documenting all new positions I open. And I can’t open new positions if I don’t first complete my “This Week’s Market Sentiment” section (below) to give me trading guidance.

So, for this Trade Trudging week, I want to stage my Vertical Spreads possibilities and watch if the market bounce continues, or if the Marketeers pick the cup with the Iocane.


All though, President Zelenskiy is doing his best to keep the Ukraine crisis on the world’s front page, the mainstream media is becoming less interested. The market effects from the Russian invasion have been assessed and are now baked into the equations (barring a market shock, like Russia lobbing a low-grade battlefield nuke). Now the media is switching gears back to their bread-n-butter issues – political fear-mongering (like how our country will come to an end if the Republicans take Congress in November).

(Note: most of the 117th Congress has been defined by a small group of Progressives. With a super slim majority, the Democrat House leadership abdicated control of their agenda narrative to individuals like Pramila Jayapal, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortex, and Rashida Tlaib. A Republican victory in November will not necessarily be a rebuke of mainstream Democrat policies, but rather the Democrats’ rejection of woke politics.)

There’s nothing to explain.
You’re trying to kidnap what I’ve rightfully stolen.

Vizzini (Movie: Princess Bride)
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This Week’s Market Sentiment

This Market Sentiment Section is typically completed by midday Monday morning. By the time this journal is published, it will be a week old.

(As of 04/04/2022)

This section reviews five indicators: Ecopolitical events, VIX, Put/Call Ratio, Consumer Sentiment Index, and the S&P 500, and how these could affect the market’s direction. I will use these indicators to help guide my trading decisions for this week.

Each of my five indicators will “vote” on a DEFCON (Damocles Options Trading Readiness Signal) level, exclusive to that indicator. Then, In the final sub-section, “My sentiment for this coming week” below, I’ll compile the votes into a DEFCON level for the week.

Ecopolitical Tree Shakers (ETS):

Ecopolitical (Sociopolitical-Economics) Tree Shakers (ETS) can be breaking news, political machinations, Federal Reserve musings, or even Twitter Trends. They are events that can abruptly change the dynamics of the current markets. U.S. political polarization’s impact on Wall Street cannot be glossed over.

ETS is like a lit fuse to a bomb. The fuse can be fast or slow, and the bomb can easily be a dud. But I need to watch this closely as an indicator. The ETS can significantly disrupt all the other indicators at the drop of a hat.


Yikes – Yawns – Yays


Geopolitical


Socioeconomics 

There appears to be more Yays than Yikes in this week’s Market Sentiment section – so I am encouraged. But I can’t help to think that the current Correction bounce is too fragile to not continue to be cautious.

ETS votes cautious DEFCON 4

VIX: Broad Market Volatility

The VIX is an emotion-gauge for the general investing population. It is thought to be driven by the Marketeers’ current level of greed or fear. As one-month forward-looking volatility, it is not designed to tell us which direction the market will move but rather how fast it can get there.

A VIX of 15% is assumed to be a market at rest. Since the intrinsic nature of the Stock Market is to move up, a VIX close to 15% or below will correspond with the market’s innate tendency to rise.

ThinkorSwim Chart: CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) – 04/03/2022

The 4-week trajectory of the VIX Regression Channel continued a dramatic swing down as the Marketeers assess the current market trajectory.

The trajectory of the VIX is decisively moving towards lower volatility. With the current value below the 9-Day SMA and the 9-Day below the 50-Day, it’s hard to not be optimistic about the current bull run-up of the markets.

Being blind to all other indicators, I will vote for a cautious DEFCON level 4

VIX votes a cautious DEFCON 4

Put/Call Ratio:

Put Options are frequently used as protection against existing investments falling. When the ratio between Put Options bought versus Call Options bought is above 1, this is an indicator that the Marketeers are buying insurance for what they may see as declining Markets (or a pending Market collapse). Conversely, when the Put/Call Ratio falls below 1, there is a general sense that the broader Markets will increase, and more investors are buying more than selling.

ThinkorSwim Chart: S&P 500 Put/Call Ratio – as of 04/03/2022

Last Tuesday (3/29) the Put/Call Ratio fell below the 0.5 line, briefly. This insinuates the Marketeers are gaining confidence that we are back on a bull market trajectory.

Being blind to all other indicators, I’ll vote for a cautious DEFCON 4

Put/Call Ratio votes a cautious DEFCON 4

Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI):

A low CSI index is a general dissatisfaction with our current management of U.S. economic policies. This dissatisfaction will imply that something has to change. A high satisfaction rating suggests approval of the current policy management and implies market stability. Surveys of Consumers (umich.edu)

Consumer Sentiment Index as of 03/27/2022

March Finals was a disappointment as the indexes continue to inch downward.

March index of 59.4% is a disheartening 5.4% lower than just a month ago. And now, 59.4% is the lowest in 10-years.

Continued low CSI numbers are conformation of the general dissatisfaction with the government’s economic policies.

Being blind to all other indicators and just looking at this week’s CSI, I feel we should be extremely cautious.

Misery Index

With the copious amount of economic pressures throughout the nation this year (inflation, employment, interest rates, etc.), knowing what the Misery Index is and what direction the index is moving can cast a long shadow on Marketeer’s sentiment. Numbers are coming from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov).

Misery Index = 11.5% (7.9% + 3.6%). Slightly down from 11.7% last month.

CSI votes a dismal DEFCON 3

Market Indexes:

DOW (DJX) = 34,818 – down 0.1% from 34,861 last week. (4 weeks deviation: 848 up from 695 last week)
S&P 500 (SPX) = 4,546 – up 0.1% from 4,543 last week. (4 weeks deviation: 148.65 up from 112.54 last week)

The S&P 500 is a stock market index that tracks the 500 largest companies in the U.S. This index represents about 80% of all the capitalization for the country. The S&P is widely considered the best indicator of how all the U.S. markets are performing.

ThinkorSwim Chart: Daily S&P 500 Index – Four Months Trend (Updated 04/03/2022)

Market Thrashing

4 Weeks Thrashing of DJX = +/- 848 points or 2.4% of the market’s volume is up from 2.0% last week.
4 Weeks Thrashing of SPX = +/- 112.54 points or 2.5% of the market’s volume is flat from 2.5% last week.
(Market Thrashing above 1.0% might indicate indecision from the Marketeers.)

The Markets ended last week mostly flat from when it began. But, since the past 4-weeks were a bull-wise tear, that’s pretty good.

The 4-Month Trend will continue Bearish for a while due to the Correction data on the back end. But the 50-Day SMA continues to move Bullish and the short-term trajectories are suggesting a possible return to a bullish direction.

Being blind to all other indicators, I’ll go with a cautious DEFCON 4.

Market Index votes a cautious DEFCON 4

My sentiment for this coming week:

Of the five indicators:

It seems that we have returned to a DEFCON 4 status – YAY! But I have a concern with the fragileness of the rebound.

Trading Readiness Level for this week

DEFCON = 4

This week’s Rules:

Maintain vigilance.

I have one rolled DIA Vertical Spread set to expire this week and the probability of expiring worthlessly is good.

Entry Rules:
Exit Rules:







Profit and Loss Statements

(As of 04/08/2022)

Note: This month was my first for the year (and hopefully my last). This is solely from last week’s loss of $802 from a roll that, as it turned out, I did not need to roll.

Cash Balance Sheet

Year
2022
Month
Apr
Week
#14
Beginning Account Balance$28,000.00$27,645.97$27,645.97
Deposits (Div. & Int.)$0.67$0.00$0.00
Withdraws (paycheck1)-$1,575.00-$0.00-$0.00
Premiums on Open$9,399.00$221.00$221.00
Premiums on Close-7,927.00-$0.00-$0.00
Fees Paid (total)-$32.74-$2.04-$2.04
Ending Account Balance$27,864.93$27,864.93$27,864.93
Total Gain/Loss-$135.07$218.96$218.96
ROR0.8%0.8%
ROC-0.5%
1 Paycheck = 22.5% of initial investment paid out monthly

Cash Flow Chart

YOD Vertical Credit Spreads Cash-Flow Chart – As of 04/08/2022 (Excel Chart)

(Note: the negative weekly results for weeks 4, 8, and 12 were when I withdrew $525 from the Trading Account for my paycheck. Negative week 11 is from an unnecessarily bad roll.)

My Performance vs. SPY

Hypothetically, instead of depositing $28,000 in my Options Trading Account, could I have done better if I bought $28,000 of the ETF/SPY instead?

Options Trading
Account
SPY
(Fictional)
Initial Investment
(As of Jan 4, 2021)
$28,000.00
(Cash)
$28,000.00
(58.9523 shares @ $474.96)
Funds Added$9,399.67
(Premiums)
0.22 shares
(Dividends Reinvested)
Funds Removed-$7,957.70
(Early Close & Fees)
$0
(Fractional Shares Sold)
Market Changes-$1,151.50
(Open Spreads’ Fair Market Value )
-$1,383.28
(Gain/Loss)
Ending Balance$28,288.43
(Mark-To-Market)
$26,616.72
(59.1706 shares * $449.83 CV)
ROI1.0%-4.9%
As of 04/08/2022 11:05 AM

Note: The markets started 2022 terribly. But I still believe that the year will end higher than it began. So if I can keep my at-risk Spreads safe until the markets start a slow trackback, then all this negative unrealized market value will reverse.







Schedule for this Week

Goals for this week: (04/04/2022 – 04/08/2022) (Week #14)

Monday:

Tuesday – Thursday:

Friday:

This Week’s Trade Activity

(As of 04/08/2022)

Spread Count Summary:

Year
2022
Month
Apr
Week
#14
Vertical Bull Put Credit Spread2122
Vertical Bear Call Credit Spread000
Vertical Bull Put Debit Spread000
Vertical Bull Call Debit Spread000
Margin Interest000
Total2122

Current Dollars at Risk:

Year
2022
Month
Apr
Week
#14
Vertical Bull Put Credit Spread$15,746.$3,779.$3,779.
Vertical Bear Call Credit Spread$0.$0.$0.
Vertical Bull Put Debit Spread$0.$0.$0.
Vertical Bull Call Debit Spread$0.$0.$0.
Iron Condor$0.$0.$0.
Total Dollar Risk$15,746.$3,779.$3,779.
Max Risk Allowed$28,000.N/A$4,000.

Options Buying Power:

Unallocated dollars available to open new Vertical Credit Spreads:

Current Cash Balance$27,864.93
Set-Aside Dollars for Existing Spreads-$17,000
Cash Available for New Spreads$10,864.93
(Options Buying Power)







Vertical Spreads Opened This Week

(04/04/2022 – 04/08/2022)

QQQ:310p/290p  – Open 04/07/22 – Expires 05/13/22 – Max Gain = $120.00 – Open Price = $353.44
(Vertical Bull Put Credit Spread)
At Open: Prob. OTM= 86.5%, Headroom= -12.3%, Max Loss= $1,880, AROR= 64.2%

ThinkorSwim Chart: Vertical Bull Put Credit Spread – QQQ – Short: 310 Put – Long: 290 Put

Entry Rules for Vertical Bull Put Credit Spreads:

  1. Current maximum dollars at risk < $28,000? Yes ($15,746)
  2. Max dollar at risk this week < $4,000? Yes ($3,779)
  3. Max time to have any dollars at risk < 8 weeks (<56 days)? Yes (36 days)
  4. Long-term trend (two months) bullish? Yes (see chart)
  5. Short-term trajectory of the underlying bullish? No (see chart)
  6. 2-week Thrashing < 1% & Bullish: No (2-week Thrashing = 1.5% / Bearish)
  7. Put/Call Ratio < 1, (or falling if it is > 1)? Yes (0.9 down from 1.8)
  8. Current price above 9-Day SMA?: No (see chart)
  9. 9-Day SMA above 50-Day SMA?: No (see chart)
  10. Short-strike > 1 SD below the current price? Yes (1SD=$321.97)
  11. Short-strikes Prob-OTM >= 83.0%? Yes (86.5%)
  12. Short-Strike price below the trend channel at expiration?: Yes (see chart)
  13. Strike Width minimum (>= 15)? Yes (20 strike width)

This is my first non-rolled QQQ Vertical Spread since the market downturn in Jan.

Since the beginning of this week, the markets have been mostly sour since the speculation of the Fed’s soon-to-be-released March Minutes. To compensate for the downturn, I upped the probability of OTM from 83% to 85%. This change pushed the Short Strike over 12% below the current QQQ value.

DIA:320p/300p  – Open 04/05/22 – Expires 05/20/22 – Max Gain = $101.00 – Open Price = $350.13
(Vertical Bull Put Credit Spread)
At Open: Prob. OTM= 85.7%, Headroom= -8.6%, Max Loss= $1,899, AROR= 42.7%

ThinkorSwim Chart: Vertical Bull Put Credit Spread – DIA – Short: 320 Put – Long: 300 Put

Entry Rules for Vertical Bull Put Credit Spreads:

  1. Current maximum dollars at risk < $28,000? Yes ($16,206)
  2. Max dollar at risk this week < $4,000? Yes ($1,899)
  3. Max time to have any dollars at risk < 8 weeks (<56 days)? Yes (45 days)
  4. Long-term trend (two months) bullish? Yes (see chart)
  5. Short-term trajectory of the underlying bullish? No (see chart)
  6. 2-week Thrashing < 1% & Bullish: Yes (2-week Thrashing = 0.7% / Bullish)
  7. Put/Call Ratio < 1, (or falling if it is > 1)? No (1.6 up from 1.5)
  8. Current price above 9-Day SMA?: Yes (see chart)
  9. 9-Day SMA above 50-Day SMA?: Yes (see chart)
  10. Short-strike > 1 SD below the current price? Yes (1SD=$325.27)
  11. Short-strikes Prob-OTM >= 83.0%? Yes (85.7%)
  12. Short-Strike price below the trend channel at expiration?: Yes (see chart)
  13. Strike Width minimum (>= 15)? Yes (20 strike width)

Rule 6 is the second time it’s been yes this year. The two-week trend is decisively bullish and the thrashing for these weeks is less than 1.0%. This shows a level of confidence from the Marketeers that the next few weeks should continue positive.

As I was recording this new position, a news alert came out from Brainard that the Feds are “prepared to take stronger actions on inflation.” If that means that next month’s interest rate hike will be 0.5% (as predicted) or if it will be more than that. The market’s reaction to this news was immediately negative. I think I need to wait until 10:00 AM before I submit any new Spreads.

Vertical Spreads Currently Cooking

(As of 04/08/2022)

Currently rolled Spreads: 3
Spreads currently ITM: 0

IWM:180p/160p  – Open 03/31/22 – Expires 05/20/22 – Max Gain = $94.00 – Open Price = $208.31
(Vertical Bull Put Credit Spread)
At Open: Prob. OTM= 86.7%, Headroom= -13.6%, Max Loss= $1,906, AROR= 35.6%
Now: Prob. OTM= 80.4%, Headroom= -9.2%

SPY:410p/390p  – Open 03/29/22 – Expires 05/20/22 – Max Gain = $112.00 – Open Price = $459.50
(Vertical Bull Put Credit Spread)
At Open: Prob. OTM= 86.4%, Headroom= -10.8%, Max Loss= $1,888, AROR= 41.3%
Now: Prob. OTM= 82.3%, Headroom= -8.2%

(Rolled) QQQ:330p/290p  – Open 03/25/22 – Expires 05/06/22 – Max Gain = $322 – Open Price = $359.08
(Vertical Bull Put Credit Spread)
At Open: Prob. OTM= 77.5%, Headroom= -8.2%, Max Loss= $3,678.00, AROR= 75.8%
Now: Prob. OTM= 73.7%, Headroom= -5.8%

(Rolled) QQQ:345p/305p  – Open 03/15/22 – Expires 04/29/22 – Max Gain = $1,996.00 – Open Price = $319.40
(Vertical Bull Put Credit Spread)
At Open: Prob. OTM= 21.1%, Headroom= +7.2%, Max Loss= $2,004, AROR= 807%
Now: Prob. OTM= 57.8%, Headroom=-1.5%

(Rolled) SPY:410p/380p  – Open 02/23/22 – Expires 04/14/22 – Max Gain = $509.00 – Open Price = $430.68
(Vertical Bull Put Credit Spread)
At Open: Prob. OTM= 65.5%, Headroom= -4.8%, Max Loss=$2,491.00, AROR=148.9%
Now: Prob. OTM = 97.8%, Headroom = -8.3%







Vertical Spreads Closed This Week

(As of 04/08/2022)

(Rolled) DIA:320p/290p  – Open 02/24/22 – Expires 04/08/22 – Max Gain = $660.00 – Open Price = $2,340.00
(Vertical Bull Put Credit Spread)
At Open: Prob. OTM= 55.6%, Headroom= -2.0%, Max Loss=$2,340.00, AROR=239.1%
At Close: Prob. OTM = 99.6%, Head Room = -7.6%

Cost to open: $6.60 premium collected * 100 shares = $660.00
Cost to close: $0.00 premium paid * 100 shares = $0.00 (closed worthlessly)
Net Profit = $660.00 to open – $0.00 to close – $1.00 fees = $659.00
AROR = ($659.00 / 43 days in play) *365 / $2,340.00 = 239.1%

1. Spread opened (original) open 1/14/22, initial premium collected = $95.00
2. Spread closed (rolling) 02/24/22, premium paid = $535.00
3. Spread reopened (rolled) 02/24/22, premium collected = $660.00
4. Rolled Spread closed 04/08/22, premium paid = $0.00 (expired worthlessly)
Profit from this effort = ($95 – $535 + $660) $220.00 (less fees)

The original Spread’s construction was 330p/315p. When this Spread was closed (rolled on 2/25), DIA’s current price was $325.22. If I would have let it expire, my Short would have been assigned and my Long would have expired worthlessly. The net loss would have been ($325.22 – $330 * 100 shares =) -$478.00.

By rolling the original Spread, instead of a -$478 loss, I realized a gain of $220.00. Rolling this Spread turned this loss into a profit during the time the markets were plummeting into a Correction.

Conclusion

Can selling options for income be considered a Home Business? Can I make money at home by selling Vertical Bull Put Credit Options Spreads? These are questions that I am trying to answer for myself.

Three years ago, I set out on a task to see if I could make a retirement income from home by trading Stock Options. I was an Options Trading Beginner, began with NO knowledge of Options mechanics and only $8,000 to risk. And because I learn best when I write things down, I have documented every step of the way (every bonehead mistake, process epiphanies, interconnecting events, externalities, and so on).

This blog is my Options Trading Journal for beginners (me). I will record my weekly Options contract buys and sells in hopes of gaining experience.

Experience is the ability to recognize that
I’m about to make the same mistake again.

– Damocles

Disclaimer

Even though I have tried to make it clear that this blog is my personal trading journal, it has been suggested by others that I, nevertheless, include a general disclaimer. So here goes…

“This blog and the information contained herein are not intended to be a source of advice or analysis concerning the material presented. The information and/or documents contained in the blog do not constitute investment advice.”







OptionsTradesByDamocles.com

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